Det er stor enighet om at klimaendringer er en viktig årsak til at enkelte humlearter er på tilbakegang. Bildet viser nedsmelting av Bøyabreen i Sogn og Fjordane. Foto: Åslaug Viken.
Klima er en av de viktigste faktorene som bestemmer artenes utbredelse, enten direkte eller indirekte. Endringer i klima kan påvirke artens forekomst, enten gjennom økt frekvens og styrke på ekstreme klimahendelser eller gjennom gradvise endringer av gjennomsnittlige forhold. Det finnes forholdsvis lite kunnskap om hvordan klima påvirker humler, men det er stor enighet om at klimaendringer er en viktig årsak til at enkelte humlearter er på tilbakegang og at andre er på framgang. I tillegg vil klimatiske forhold forklare mye av svingninger i humlebestander fra år til år.
Skremmende klimamodeller
Gjennom et stort EU-prosjekt har man nå samlet mer enn én million humleobservasjoner i Europa for å beregne klimatoleransen for de 69 humleartene i denne verdensdelen. Basert på tre ulike scenarier for klimaendringer fram mot år 2050 og år 2100, har man modellert hvordan disse artene vil være utbredt i framtida (Rasmont et al. 2015). Avhengig av hvilke klimascenarier og spredningsmodeller man legger til grunn, vil mellom 9 og 34 humlearter være ekstremt utsatt og står i fare for å forsvinne helt fra Europa innen 2100. I tillegg viser beregningene at mer enn 41% av artene i Europa vil innskrenke sitt nåværende utbredelsesområde med mellom 50 og 70% i samme periode. Kun tre arter vil kunne bli mer vanlige som følge av klimaendringene. I hvilken grad artene vil overleve i framtida, vil dels avhenge av hvordan de er i stand til å spre seg til nye områder som har mer optimale klimatiske forhold. I Norge vil det for eksempel kunne bli passende klima for arter som ikke lenger vil klare varmere og tørrere somre lenger sør i Europa. Artenes spredningsevne vil da være avgjørende for deres framtidige overlevelse. Man har allerede sett at tilpasningsdyktige arter som steinhumle, B. lapidarius og mørk jordhumle B. terrestris nå har spredt seg til nord for polarsirkelen (Martinet et al. 2015), mens andre arter trekker seg tilbake.
Ikke bare klima
Tilbakegang i humlebestander forklares ofte med endringer i landbrukspraksis som reduserer ressurstilgangen for humlene. Omfattende arealendringer, bruk av plantevernmidler og kunstgjødsel vil i mange tilfeller resultere i færre bolplasser og færre blomster for humlene. Det er imidlertid lite kunnskap om hvorfor noen arter tilsynelatende blir mer sårbare enn andre når ressurstilgangen reduseres. Lenge trodde man at spesialisering i valg av vertsplanter var den viktigste årsaken til at humlearter gikk tilbake, men denne hypotesen står nå svakt alene (Williams 2005). Det kan derimot se ut til at en kombinasjon av plantepreferanser og klima kan være en viktig forklaring. Arter som har mindre toleranse for variasjon i klima ser ut til å være mest sårbare, og bestander som lever i ytterkanten av sitt klimatiske toleranseområde ser ut til å forsvinne først. Omfanget av klimaeffektene påvirkes sterkt av ressurstilgangen for humlene slik at disse effektene slår inn tidligere når blomstertilgangen reduseres. Det vil si at dersom det er rikelig med blomsterenger og leveområder for humlene, vil humlene være mer robuste for klimaendringer. Denne sammenhengen er vist for kløverhumle B. distinguendus og enghumle B. sylvarum i England (Williams et al. 2007). Klimaendringene vil med andre ord kunne slå ut bestander som allerede er svekket pga andre påvirkninger.
Indirekte effekter
Forandringer i klima vil også kunne medføre endringer som har indirekte innvirkning på humlenes livsvilkår. Blant annet forandringer i flora, artssammensetning, konkurransesituasjon og forekomsten av parasitter og sykdommer. Klimaendringer kan også være medvirkende for at frekvensen og omfanget av forstyrrelser som skogbrann og stormfellinger, som kan ha betydning for humlenes livsvilkår, ender seg. Musebol er meget viktig for de fleste arter av humler. Bestanden av smågnagere er gjerne sterkt påvirket av klimatiske forhold, og slikt som barfrost og manglende subnival (luftrom mellom bakke og snø) vil begrense bestandene betydelig. Også for humledronninger i dvale er de sistnevnte værmessige/klimatiske forhold ugunstige.
Det er vist at endringer i klima kan føre til dårligere synkronisering mellom planter og insekters aktivitetsperioder. Slike såkalte «fenologiske mismatch» kan oppstå dersom en humle, som følge av endringer i klima, forskyver sin aktivitetsperiode i forhold til sine næringsplanter som kan være upåvirket av klima (Totland et al. 2013). Dette er først og fremst et problem som rammer mer spesialiserte arter enn humler, men i perioder når få næringsplanter er tilgjengelige, som på våren, kan dette være kritisk også for humler. En annet tilsvarende vær- og klimarelatert situasjon er hvis sesongen starter ekstremt tidlig og både humler og blomster (selje) lokkes ut i begynnelsen av mars pga. uvanlig varmt vær. Humledronningene kommer da godt i gang, men står i fare for å bli utsatt for lange og kalde perioder før våren setter inn for fullt. De risikerer da å gå tomme for energi og fryse ihjel dersom bolet allerede er startet opp.
Endringer i norsk humlefauna
Klimaendringene vil ganske sikkert medføre store endringer i utbredelsesmønster for humler også i Norge. Reduksjon i antall soltimer og økt nedbør om sommeren under larveutviklingen og den mest hektiske flygetiden kan være negativt, men dette vil til en viss grad kunne kompenseres av økt gjennomsnittstemperatur. En temperaturøkning uten økning i skydekke vil derimot kunne virke positivt på utviklingen av flere humlebestander, og man kan forvente at artene ekspanderer om det finnes tilstrekkelig habitattilgang. Vi ser allerede nå at fjellhumlene (underslekten Alpinobombus) opptrer mer enn 100 høydemeter lenger opp i fjellet enn bare for noen tiår siden. Dersom disse endringen skjer fortere enn at vegetasjonen klarer å følge etter, kan det bli problematisk med hensyn til ressurstilgangen. I lavere fjellområder vil artene fort forsvinne når de har nådd toppen av fjellet og det ikke lenger er noe sted å flykte til.
Håp for framtida
At klimaendringene virker sterkere når ressursgrunnlaget er dårlig, er interessant. Det betyr nemlig at vi kan gjøre noe med situasjonen. Dersom vi klarer å bedre mattilgangen og levekårene for humlene, er det slettes ikke sikkert at klimaendringene får så stor effekt som man frykter. Med den enorme interessen som er for humler nå om dagen, kan det faktisk gjøre en forskjell at vi for eksempel dyrker fram humlevennlige planter, setter av en bit av plenen til slåtteeng, unngår å bruke spøytemidler og setter ut humlekasser. Når samtidig både miljø-, samferdsels- og landbruksmyndigheter er på gli for å fremme et mer humlevennlig miljø rundt oss, er det håp for framtida. Det er både gode økonomiske og økologiske grunner til å bevare humlene, så det bør det i prinsippet være enkelt å ta de rette valgene framover. Men det er fremdeles mye vi ikke vet om humlene, så det er viktig at vi fortsetter å bygge opp humlekunnskap slik at de rette tiltakene kan iverksettes.
Litteratur
Martinet, B., Rasmont, P., Cederberg, B., Evrard, D., Ødegaard, F., Paukkunen, P. & Lecocq, T. 2015. Forward to the North: two Euro-Mediterranean bumblebee species now cross the Arctic Circle. Journal Annales de la Société Entomologique de France, in press.
Totland, Ø., Hovstad, K.A., Ødegaard, F. & Åström, J. 2013. Kunnskapsstatus for insektpollinering i Norge – betydningen av det komplekse samspillet mellom planter og insekter. Artsdatabanken, Norge. 74 s.
Williams, P.H. 2005. Does specialization explain rarity and decline among British bumblebees? A response to Goulson et al. Biological Conservation 122: 33-43.
Williams, P.H., Araujo, M.B., & Rasmont, P. 2007. Can vulnerability among British bumblebee (Bombus) species be explained by niche position and breadth. Biological Conservation 138: 493-505.
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